Gartner looks into its IT crystal ball

Gartner has made 10 predictions it says will affect IT and business this year and beyond, although some other analysts are pointing out that the predicted trends and events aren't necessarily new.

Trends "indicate a strong focus on individuals, the environment and alternative ways of buying and selling IT services and technologies," said Daryl Plummer, managing vice president and Gartner Fellow.

Apple Doubles Up

The research company predicted Apple will double its U.S. and Western Europe market share in computers by 2011. Apple's gains reflect as much on failures in the rest of the industry as on Apple's success, the firm said.

Apple is challenging its competitors with software integration that provides ease of use and flexibility, more frequent innovation in hardware and software, and an ecosystem that focuses on interoperability across multiple devices, including iPod and iMac cross-selling, Gartner said.

"We've got a reinvigorated Apple Computer that's poised to be a strong, relevant player in the marketplace. It's not about whether it's double market share or triple market share," said Michael Gartenberg, an analyst at JupiterResearch. "It's about consumers having a strong, viable alternative to Windows. Apple has exceeded its reach beyond its traditional core audience to a whole new set of players."

Laptops Get Left Behind

By 2012, Gartner continued, 50 percent of traveling workers will leave their notebook computers at home in favor of other devices. Even though notebooks continue to shrink in size and weight, travelers will lament the weight and inconvenience, the firm predicts.

Vendors are developing new classes of Internet-centric pocketable devices at the sub-$400 level, as well as server - and Web-based applications that can be accessed from anywhere. There is also a new class of applications that allow users to re-create the Web environment across multiple locations or systems.

"We already have more people leaving their laptops behind because they can get communication and collaboration on portable devices, whether it's a Blackberry or Windows Mobile device or iPhone," Gartenberg said. "It's a trend again that's already happened. It's something that's likely to continue going forward. We are going to see more folks come to this realization, but it's old news."

2011: A Big Year for IT

The predictions don't end there. The next two years will see more changes, Gartner said.

By 2009, it expects more than one-third of IT organizations to have one or more environmental criteria in their top six buying rules. By 2010, it said, 75 percent of organizations will mandate a full life-cycle energy and carbon-dioxide footprint for PC hardware. Also by 2010, Gartner predicted, end-user preferences will decide as much as half of all software, hardware and services acquisitions.

Gartner makes several key predictions for 2011. It said early technology adopters will forgo capital expenditures and instead purchase 40 percent of the IT infrastructure as a service. What's more, Gartner said, suppliers to large global enterprises will need to prove their green credentials to retain preferred-supplier status. Finally, it said, the number of 3-D printers in homes and businesses will grow 100-fold over 2006 levels.

By 2012, Gartner predicts, 80 percent of all commercial software will include elements of open-source technology. Embedded open-source strategies, the firm said, will become the minimal level that most large software vendors will find necessary to maintain competitive advantages during the next five years.

Also by 2012, it said, at least one-third of business-application software spending will be as service subscriptions instead of product licenses. The SaaS (software as a service) model will enjoy steady growth during the next five years, the firm predicted.