Well, it's that time of year again. Reflection and forecasts come with the season, and this year is no exception. I started assembling a "top 10" list of the key issues in mobile and wireless that will shape the industry next year, but I quickly discovered that the top 10 could easily be the top 50 or so. There's never been more going on in the mobile and wireless industry than there is now. I managed to condense this unwieldy number down to 12, although prioritizing them is still a work in progress. Nonetheless, I present the first six this week, and the remainder in my next column. I hope you find this list to be good food for thought, and while less caloric than the rest of what we'll consume over the next few weeks, no less important.
1. Picking the right tool for the job
As the saying goes, if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Such is the case with wireless technologies and the products that result from them. Vendors like to pitch their products as all you'll ever need. But wireless is a collection of technologies, and there is no one-size-fits-all. It's all about four key elements: availability, throughput (for data), capacity and price.
The carriers will be working hard in 2008 to improve their networks, even in the face of massive new expenses related to spectrum acquisition (the 700 MHz auctions start in late January) and continual technological evolution and the upgrades this entails. Look for lots of talk about 4G continuing in 2008, but don't expect critical mass here until 2011 or 2012. And don't expect to find WiMax in digital cameras -- Wi-Fi works just fine there, and will for a very long time. OK, maybe ultrawideband.
2. Think network, not wireless, security
The focus on wireless security alone is over. It's time to think end-to-end. Mobility and wireless provide the motivation, but securing the air alone is inadequate. Good wired security solutions apply to wireless as well and involve encrypting sensitive data wherever it resides, strong authentication (ideally, two-factor) with both devices and data, and end-to-end VPNs.
Do we need a "mobile" or "wireless" VPN? This subject will be debated quite a bit in 2008, and the answer is -- it depends. Some IT shops will insist on such a solution for local management and control. But I expect big interest in SSL VPNs in 2008, and they could become the preferred wireless option as well.
3. Wi-Fi forever
Let me be clear: Nothing replaces Wi-Fi anytime soon, and maybe never. Not WiMax. Not femtocells. Nothing. The continuing technological evolution of Wi-Fi is at once remarkable (hundreds of megabits per second in a WLAN? Really?) and eminently predictable as part of the faster/better/cheaper that defines high tech.
Expect huge interest in 802.11n in 2008, ahead of final ratification of the formal standard in mid-2009. It's here. It works. Moreover, Wi-Fi is as close as we get to a universal, global wireless standard. It works in pretty much the same way everywhere, across the enterprise, the home and public spaces. Metroscale deployments will chug along in 2008, and hot spots aren't going away either. And the folks at 802.11 have even more innovations in the works. Gigabit Wi-Fi? Yes, but not until 2010 or so.
4. Think "rate vs. range," not rate alone
I find that many make the mistake of believing wireless performance numbers that are really no more than what vendor marketing departments guarantee their products will never exceed. I generally suggest de-rating theoretical numbers by 50% to 66% just to make sure a given application will work.
But it's also important to remember that there's an inverse relationship between distance and throughput in most wireless technologies: The farther you go, the slower you go. Not considering this element is often the cause of failed wireless projects, or, at the very least, disappointed and frustrated users. But let's see if we can't get the industry to be a little more realistic in its specs in 2008. The best way to make satisfied customers is to properly set their expectations. Ever seen an ink-jet printer that can move, let alone print on, 20 pages per minute? Neither have I.
5. Convergence and unification
Picking the best tool for the job may involve picking multiple tools. With the convergence of Wi-Fi and wide-area wireless services (mobile/mobile convergence, or MMC), we'll have combined cordless/cellular phones that work everywhere and provide the best mix of service, price, performance and manageability.
Just as is the case with VoIP, VoFi will be big in 2008. In fact, another related key theme will be unification, thinking not about the wired LAN and the wireless LAN, but rather just about designing, building and operating the LAN. We'll even begin to see commonality in wired and wireless network management systems, the last frontier of unified networks.
6. The single-device paradox continues
Finally, I see more convergence in networks but continuing divergence in devices. As Motorola learned with the once-hot Razr falling out of fashion, the tastes and preferences of consumers with respect to their mobile phones, PDAs or whatever change faster than the weather here in New England.
And even with Google's Android announcement, there's no such thing as a universal device or universal platform, and there may never be. We want it all, we want it in one device, but such is not possible or even feasible for now.
Look for an even more amazing range of devices next year, with the big question involving local applications or Web services. That's such a big topic that I'll write about it further in my next column. For now, look for increasing desktoplike qualities in mobile browsers. The iPhone kicked off this trend but is by no means the last word on it.
7. The last frontier: Battery and power management
No matter what your handheld can do, it can't do it with a dead battery. And as we demand that these devices do more, and faster, they suck down battery power faster than Uncle Ned downs eggnog while opening gifts. Progress in battery technology is much slower than in chips and such; chemistry is more difficult than physics. But there is progress to report. A combination of incremental improvements in lithium batteries, power-saving wireless protocols, chips that can be partially or completely turned off when not in use, and assorted engineering cleverness will enable us to make at least a little progress here. Don't expect wireless battery recharging in 2008, although this might be possible in five years or so. My advice: Always carry a fully charged spare battery with you when you travel.
8. Think ROI, not cost
I can't tell you how many projects I've seen derailed at the starting gate by a financial type who utters those three fateful words: It's too expensive. This is usually looking at the problem from the wrong perspective. It's not about cost, or at least cost alone, but rather return on investment. If you're improving the productivity of your field force far in excess of the costs involved in providing them with a mobile offering, that's a good investment. The right way to look at this problem then is to ask a few questions: Is the cash flow manageable? Are the funds available, or what's the cost of obtaining them? Next, look at opportunity cost, the cost of the next best alternative or, more likely, do nothing. And finally, estimate ROI. If all of these look good, it's tough for a chief financial officer to refuse.
9. Web services are the answer
The iPhone brought the debate over local applications versus Web services to the forefront during 2007. The iPhone originally wasn't going to have an API for programmers, but it soon will. And yet, with a great browser, one might argue that local apps are so 2007. Both are needed, as it turns out, because there are some local tasks such as editing documents, working with a spreadsheet and preparing a presentation, that can be done offline, and wireless coverage isn't perfect. Wireless on airplanes, by the way, will make progress in 2008. But there's no way that all of the information required for local applications, be it clip art or your personal files, can be carried with you at all times; there's just too much of it. And that holds for most other personal productivity and IT functions; most of these also can't be done without access to the Web. So, strategically, the Web-services approach makes more sense. More capable devices and more wireless coverage (again, via multiple technologies and networks) are also part of the solution. Again, expect good progress on both during 2008. But ultimately, it's all about content -- Web content.
10. Sociology, not technology
Wireless can bring out the best, and the worst, in us. We can be more responsive, more productive and more involved. On the other hand, incessantly ringing cell phones, loud talkers, conversations that should be taken elsewhere and the use of cell phones while driving are among the downsides we've seen so far. Part of the solution here is, of course, common sense and common courtesy, but lacking these, expect more on the legal front during 2008. Anyone driver involved in a motor vehicle collision (note I don't use the word "accident" here) while talking on a cell phone will find stiffer penalties in many states. Safety (and peace and quiet) must trump convenience.
11. Product quality must improve
This is more of a request than a forecast, but far too many wireless and mobile (and many other) technology products make it to market before they're ready. Bugs are common, and the attitude of leaving it up to the user to download a fix (if that's even possible) after a purchase is far too pervasive. We shouldn't be expected to debug products for companies that we've paid our hard-earned dollars, and it's time for product designers and builders to get it right before they put that fancy new gadget in the box. Sadly, I don't expect much progress here in the coming year, but I hope the vendors are listening regardless. Losing productivity while dealing with poor quality products affects ROI, as any CFO will tell you.
12. Open access and Net neutrality
I've saved the best, and biggest, for last. The most important stories of 2007 were the FCC requirement for
open access in some of the 700-MHz spectrum range. Spectrum blocks to be auctioned shortly, and Verizon Wireless' stunning
endorsement of open access (allowing any compatible device on their network, whether they sell it or not) and Net neutrality (agreeing to support any application, again, theirs or otherwise). Openness is the very foundation of modern networks, and now it will be the guiding principle for wireless going forward. This train is unstoppable, and all successful players are going to get on board -- or find another game.
So forward we go to a bright and promising 2008. There's never a dull moment in our little corner of IT. Please accept my best wishes for a happy holiday season and all the best for 2008. I'll be back in January with more, much more on the world of wireless and mobile. See you then.
XOHMG! Sprint has just announced the launch details of their